There was a lot of noise – and significantly less harm than many had feared. US protectionism lost much of its power. Global trade adapted and the global economy proved itself to be remarkably adaptable. The issue of tariffs has been ticked off the agenda in the financial markets. Today, everything revolves around artificial intelligence – a favourite topic in recent years – which has now been given a new boost. "Tariffs are out, AI is in." This sentence perfectly sums up current sentiment.

The AI boom has placed a well-known player at its very centre: the United States. The USA is making a comeback with investors – not despite of, but because of its technological
leadership. The dollar, which was still a problem child for many strategists three quarters ago, appears to be stable again. Not overwhelming, but solid.

A solid foundation for a good year

The economic environment gives cause for some hope. The global economy is expected to grow by just over 3 per cent in 2026. The USA is keeping pace at around 2 per cent, while Europe is gaining momentum. The inflation rates in the industrialised countries remain moderate, and fiscal and monetary policies are having a supportive effect in many countries. While the European Central Bank and the Swiss National Bank are expected to keep their interest rates unchanged, the US Federal Reserve is likely to lower interest rates.

The outlook for shares is promising. As long as profit growth in the technology sector does not disappoint, AI is continuing to provide momentum – especially in the US market. The high valuations are not hampering a positive trend. In Europe, corporate profits may pick up again after three years of stagnation. The low valuations offer added potential.

Interest rates, currencies and gold

Yield opportunities for bonds in Swiss francs remain low, whilst in other currency areas, the higher interest rates offer interesting alternatives. It may well be that the US dollar continues to weaken; however, it is not expected to act like the spoilsport again.

And gold? Its high was spectacular – almost too much of a good thing. A correction seems likely and might even be healthy. However, there is much to be said for this precious metal over the long term: geopolitical tensions, uncertainties and the desire for security.

2026: What really matters

Four questions will dominate 2026.

1. What will happen to the tariffs? The midterm elections in the USA are casting a long shadow into the future, and with them will come a drop in the willingness to take unpopular measures. The markets are betting that the worst is over. However, a ruling by the Supreme Court is likely to be decisive. It will clarify whether certain tariffs were even constitutional.
2. Germany. The engine of Europe is no longer running smoothly, but there is a desire for renewal. The plans are ambitious, yet the political headwind is strong. Reports about misused funding have dampened confidence. At the same time, expectations are low.
3. How long will the AI boom last? Between euphoria and reality, 2026 will also bring moments of doubt, and it is this very uncertainty that will keep the markets moving.
4. The US Federal Reserve. Its independence is not seriously in question, even if a change at the helm is imminent. The course is set. The decision-making process is democratic and interest rate cuts are likely to come anyway.

Recognising opportunities, categorising risks

Of course, there are also pitfalls. If it turns out that investing billions in AI has not paid off, things will get uncomfortable – especially for tech stocks. But there are also clear rays of hope. If AI delivers on its promises, it will make not only individual companies but also entire industries more productive. This would justify current prices and fuel them at the same time.

Another risk is inflation in the USA. If it proves to be more persistent than hoped, the Federal Reserve may be forced to exercise caution and delay its monetary easing. The trade war could also flare up again. Trump loves tariffs and that makes him unpredictable in terms of economic policy. Investors are also sceptical that Germany will succeed in significantly reviving its economy. Expectations are not high and could be exceeded if the financial package is implemented successfully.

What you should consider

2026 is starting off with a rare mix of stability and tension. Those who stay calm, look closely and act flexibly have the advantage. The markets have become more attentive – and rightly so. It’s not about the next wave. It's about knowing when to jump in and when to wait for the waters to calm. But one thing is certain: not being invested is not an option.

Roger Wohlwend, Chief Economist at the LLB Group

Roger Wohlwend studied electrical engineering at ETH Zurich. After his studies, he worked in Swiss industry for two years as a development engineer before moving to asset management at LLB in 2007. After several years in investment fund management, he took on the position of Chief Economist in 2024.